Sunday, October 12, 2008

I don't think ANYONE saw this one coming. So forget the projections I made a couple weeks ago. I don't want to say this one is in the bag for Obama, but it's getting pretty close. Remember, ANYTHING can happen in the next three weeks - so this is not over yet.
Since we talked last, Obama has pretty much solidified Pennsylvania (fivethirtyeight puts his chances of winning that state at 97%). He's also made significant gains in states that were either maybes or "never in a million years will go blue." (See: West Virginia). lists the current swing states as Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.
But if you add up all of the states that the site has "solid blue," he's already got 264 electoral votes. Six short. If he wins any one of these states (except for Nevada, which only has five votes), he's got the election.
More numbers from fivethirtyeight - the chances that he will win each of these states:
Nevada 79%
Colorado 93%
Missouri 55%
Indiana 50%
Ohio 75%
Virginia 93%
North Carolina 62%
Florida 83%

So it looks pretty good. In fact, fivethirtyeight says it's 94.1% good. I'll take those odds.
Nothing's settled, though. Make sure you vote.

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